Using a sample of several hundred students enrolled in the Faculty of Economics at the University of Sydney, we model progression in the first-year econometrics course. Our primary interest is in determining the usefulness of these models in the identification of "students at risk". This interest highlights the need to distinguish between students who drop the course and those who complete but who ultimately fail. Such models allow identification and quantification of the factors that are most important in determining student progression and thus make them a potentially useful aid in educational decision making.